I wrote this column for an Irish newspaper The News Letter (which is the oldest English language newspaper in the world).
It’s about how Trump’s decision to bomb Iran was not a gamble - he had been through the playbook before and knew how it would end. And I was there with a ringside seat!
There are excerpts below and you can read the full column here.
Isolationist Americans are Shedding No Tears Over the Destruction in Iran
As I write this, it appears there is a shaky ceasefire between Israel, Iran and the United States.
Contrary to predictions, the US has not been dragged into World War III.
No one should be surprised by what has happened. This scenario played out in 2020 during the last Trump administration. There was an attack on Iran, followed by dire predictions from those who always want to see the worst in Trump, which was then followed by a token response and feeble surrender by Iran.
I wasn’t surprised this time because I had a front-row seat to the thinking behind President Trump’s Iran strategy – not from “sources close to the president,” but from the president himself back in 2020.
I got this ringside seat into Trump’s Iran thinking because I had written a verbatim play about how a couple of rogue FBI agents conspired to take down candidate and then President Trump. The agents were having an extramarital affair, and the play, FBI Lovebirds: Undercovers, used only their emails and text messages for the script.
It was part embarrassing teen-romance-style texts mixed with Le Carré-style conspiracies.
It was very, very funny.
Trump likes a good joke and enjoys making fun of his enemies, so when the play was staged in Washington, DC, I was invited to meet the president in the Oval Office.
It was early 2020, after President Trump had shocked the world by assassinating Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This was viewed as very risky, just like the current attacks on Iran’s suspected nuclear sites.
At the time, Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden called the assassination a “huge escalatory move,” saying Trump, “basically tossed a stick of dynamite into a tinderbox.”
Senator Elizabeth Warren, also running for president, said Trump’s “reckless move escalates the situation with Iran and increases the likelihood of more deaths and new Middle East conflict.”
But it didn’t happen then, and it hasn’t happened now. In 2020, Iran fired a few missiles at a US Army base in Iraq.
They missed, although about 30 soldiers were said to have suffered concussions. And then, nothing. Not so much a stick of dynamite – more a damp squib.
We were in the Oval Office as Iran’s response was being discussed in the news. President Trump was very relaxed. There was no fear of World War III. President Trump explained that Iran was warned not to respond in any significant way.
They were told that if any Americans were killed or seriously injured they would completely destroy the Iranian navy.
He explained that the rockets they fired in 2020 were non-retaliatory retaliation, designed to appease their domestic audience.
They needed to be seen as doing something against the “Great Satan”.
In 2025, the Iranians fired a rocket at US soldiers in Qatar.
On both occasions, the Iranian regime signaled in advance they were going to fire the rockets.
In 2020, President Trump even wondered how badly the 30 soldiers were wounded. “Some of the injuries appear after they speak to lawyers,” an aide remarked (the number of soldiers who file fake disability claims against the US military is one of the untold stories of American life.)
Basically, the only side that feared an escalation in the Iran-US conflict was Iran.
Then and now, one of Iran’s biggest threats was their ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, raising the price of oil across the globe. If America wiped out their navy, as Trump warned, they would be a nation without the ability to make or carry out such threats. It would appear very weak.
That’s why Trump attacked Iran this time, despite skepticism from his supporters. After being pummelled by Israel, Iran is even weaker now. Not one bullet or anti-aircraft missile was fired at the American planes dropping the bombs.
Isolationism is very popular nowadays in the United States, and nowhere is it more popular than among President Trump’s supporters.
They wonder why they should be involved in a war far away when their cities are crumbling and there is a cost-of-living crisis every day at the grocery store. For now, Trump’s coalition is holding.
Even isolationists appreciate a show of American power, and Iran has been bombing and killing Americans for over 50 years. They are shedding no tears over the destruction in Iran.
Trump has emerged victorious and stronger. His domestic enemies and Iran are real losers in this latest conflict.
l Phelim McAleer is from Beragh, Co Tyrone. He is a journalist/producer living and working in Los Angeles. You can find him on the social media platform X: @PhelimMcAleer